{"id":5491,"date":"2019-02-13T23:14:40","date_gmt":"2019-02-13T19:44:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forexercourse.com\/?post_type=product&p=5491"},"modified":"2020-05-21T22:36:23","modified_gmt":"2020-05-21T19:06:23","slug":"long-run-growth-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"product","link":"https:\/\/forexercourse.com\/shop\/long-run-growth-forecasting","title":{"rendered":"Long-Run Growth Forecasting"},"content":{"rendered":"

Book : Long-Run Growth Forecasting<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth. GDP forecasts for the years 2006 to 2020 for 40 countries are derived in a transparent way. Offering a systematic approach to models of potential GDP that can also be used for forecasts of more than a decade it fills the wide gap between the high demand for such models by banks, international organizations, and governments on the one hand and the limited supply on the other hand. Frequent forecast failures in the past (e.g. Japan 1990, Asia 1997) and the heavy economic losses they produced motivated the work. The book assesses the large number of theories of economic growth, the drivers of economic growth, the available datasets and the empirical methods on offer. A preference is shown for evolutionary models and an augmented Kaldor model. The book uses non-stationary panel techniques to find pair-wise cointegration among GDP per capita and its main correlates.<\/p>\n

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“The whole book undoubtedly benefits from Bergheim\u2019s experience as both an analyst and researcher. \u2026 his study will prove a veritable treasure especially for young researchers looking for current research themes. \u2026 Stefan Bergheim has managed to combine a detailed empirical discussion with the great debates about the pillars of our material well-being. \u2026 Well done.” (Andre Lieber, Amazon, September, 2008)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

From the Back Cover<\/h3>\n
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This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth in a large number of countries. It offers a systematic approach to models of potential GDP that can also be used for forecasts of more than a decade. It is an attempt to fill the wide gap between the high demand for such models by commercial banks, international organizations, central banks and governments on the one hand and the limited supply on the other hand. Frequent forecast failures in the past (e.g. Japan 1990, Asia 1997) and the heavy economic losses they produced motivated the work. The book assesses the large number of different theories of economic growth, the drivers of economic growth, the available datasets and the empirical methods on offer. A preference is shown for evolutionary models and an augmented Kaldor model. The book uses non-stationary panel techniques to find pair-wise cointegration among GDP per capita and its main correlates such as physical capital, human capital and openness. GDP forecasts for the years 2006 to 2020 for 40 countries are derived in a transparent way.<\/p>\n

The author works for a commercial bank and has been the lead researcher in the bank’s project called “Global Growth Centres 2020”.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Book : Long-Run Growth Forecasting This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth. GDP forecasts for the years 2006 to 2020 for 40 countries are derived in a transparent way. Offering a systematic approach to models of potential GDP that can also be used for forecasts […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":5492,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":[],"product_cat":[43],"product_tag":[6795],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forexercourse.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/product\/5491"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forexercourse.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/product"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forexercourse.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/product"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forexercourse.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5491"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forexercourse.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5492"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forexercourse.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5491"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"product_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forexercourse.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/product_cat?post=5491"},{"taxonomy":"product_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forexercourse.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/product_tag?post=5491"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}